Small Realities

Inside the mind of Lance Schonberg

Predicting The Future

Everyone has the ability to predict the future to some degree. At any given moment, on any given subject, we can all say what we think is going to happen next, with varying degrees of success depending on how informed with are on the subject and, to some extent, luck. Here are some of mine for 2009.

  1. I will turn 39, probably on the 29th of December. Unless I’m run over by a bus, have a heart attack, or a satellite drops on my head, this prediction pretty much guarantees that I’ll get at least one right.
  2. We’ll have a Federal Election or, after a vote of No Confidence, the Conservative government will be toppled and replaced by a Coalition, possibly both. Yes, a solely Liberal government is possible, but I’m not certain how likely. Things in and around the Party need to change before it will happen. In any case, Stephen Harper’s days as Prime Minister of Canada and probably leader of the Conservative Party add up to months at best.
  3. Social Media will continue to gain momentum. Yeah, that’s an easy prediction to make for anyone. Will Facebook still be king at the end of the year? That I’m not willing to predict, nor the ultimate success of any one service. I’m on Facebook, and that just happened in September, but have outstanding invites to two other services. I’ve been on Twitter since just before Christmas 2007, but really only started to make real use of it in the last couple of months. With my schedule, I’ll never reach Tee Morris levels, but that’s okay. I’m likely to reach Writing Dad levels, whatever they happen to be.
  4. The phrase “Cognitive Surplus” will mean something to a lot more people. And I think what it’s going to mean is participation. Fundamentally, it’s better to do something than nothing and participating in anything is far better than sitting around watching TV. I’m discovering more and more that I don’t have time to watch TV. Even if I’m in a room where there’s a television on, I’m likely doing something else, barring a little vegetation time with the kids, but that’s usually a movie or lately Wii.
  5. The Recession will continue but things will be looking better by the end of the year. I’m not an economist by any means and find if surprising that the economy actually works as much as it does, but my impression from all of the reading and media is that if you look through the dire warnings, there’s light at the end of the tunnel, especially if we have a government that’s actually willing to act.
  6. The Big Three will not learn. They may start to think about learning and there are a few indications of that already (e.g. the Volt) but they’ll have to be bludgeoned, flogged, or just plain beaten into the 21st century (e.g. the rebranding of smaller SUVs as “Crossovers”).
  7. I will miss my weight loss goal but make significant progress toward it, or at least more than I did this year.
  8. The price of Oil, and therefore Gas, will rise, recovering as the economy begins to. Will we get back up into the $1.25/litre range at the pumps? I don’t think so. Not yet, anyway. I hope. While it’s critical to start moving towards other energy sources in a big way, the prices we experienced in advance of our current ‘Recession’ weren’t justified, but what we’re seeing right now is a little artificially depressed.
  9. The stock markets will begin to recover.
  10. The real estate markets will not.
  11. There will be at least one assassination plot discovered against President Obama. Disturbing, but I’m not sure anyone will be surprised. I’d really like to be wrong about this one.
  12. The traditional publishing industry will continue to hemorrhage jobs and business. The big publishers will continue to whine and complain about it in the main while the small publishers continue to adapt and survive. 

I think I’ll leave it there, although I’ve got plenty of thoughts on the shape of things to come. If anyone has any thoughts on anything I’ve predicted or something else entirely, please leave a comment or even send me an e-mail. 

I wonder how you get the title of Futurist.


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